No Excuses!

Sad times for Tampa Bay Bucs fans.

Sitting and watching the product that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have put on the field as they’re blown out by the Baltimore Ravens, one thing is very clear: there is very little pride in this team. In their first game back home after a brutal three games on the road, the Buccaneers have regressed back to the form shown in the 56-14 blowout loss in Atlanta after being competitive against the Saints after beating the Steelers . As disappointing as the play on the field has been, the coaching has been equally discouraging.

The Buccaneers Are in Rebuild Mode

Regardless of what fans may believe or how much faith has been shown in Lovie Smith’s ability to quickly return this team to relevance, there should be no doubt that Tampa Bay is in full rebuild mode. There is a good amount of talent on the roster presently, but also needs for upgrades at very important positions. Some of this cannot be blamed on the new regime, but it is very disturbing to see. That lack of depth has really hindered the Bucs in their quest to climb from the cellar of the NFL The focus going forward now will be how competitive the Bucs can be, while hopefully showing improvement. Consider the rest of the season as an extended roster analysis, as the Bucs coaches go over this roster with a finetooth comb to see who deserves to be on this roster in 2015. That sure sounds like a rebuilding team to me.

Hot Seats

The play on the field has been preposterous on many levels; however, the coaching has left much to be desired as well. A big complaint during Schiano’s second year was that he was not putting players—primarily the defensive linemen—in position to succeed. Watching this defense get shredded week in and week out, that claim can be applied to the entire defensive unit, sans Gerald McCoy. With that said, Leslie Frazier’s job security should be non-existent. Despite the failings of the offense, Frazier’s unit has run away with the award for the most disappointing unit on this team, and likely in the league.

The secondary is regularly out of position, playing an off coverage that makes it easy for any competent QB to complete passes at a high rate. So far, opposing QBs have completed 71 percent of their passes for nearly 295 yards per game, as the defense approaches historical ineptitude defending the pass—a mark that they came close to in Schiano’s first year as head coach. However, that 2011 team at least could hang its hat on a top-ranked run defense. The current roster hasn’t been good in any aspect of….well, anything. To make matters worse, in this six-game span, the Buccaneers defensive unit has been on the short end of several QB/WR records:

·      Austin Davis’ first career win, in which he completed 75.9 percent (22 of 29) of his passes for 235 yards

·      Team record for completion percentage for Falcons’ Matt Ryan: 87.5%

·      Career-high nine catches by Heath Miller , as Roethlisberger completed 72.5 perent of his passes

·      Five TDs thrown by Joe Flacco in just 16 minutes and 3 seconds of gameplay

o   Five TDs also is a new career high for Flacco, who had thrown seven TDs prior to this game

·      Oh, and there’s this:

The Bucs’ porous defense has been picked apart by every quarterback it’s faced this season. It’s best game so far was a showing against the Saints in which they surrendered over 500 yards of total offense, but forced three turnovers—mostly due to McCoy’s pressure on Drew Brees throughout the game.  Without McCoy in the lineup, the team was ravaged and embarrassed, suffering one of the franchise’s worst losses in recent memory. When they came out and put together a comeback win in Pittsburgh, many thought it was the turning point in the season. Combining that performance with the competitiveness shown in New Orleans gave fans hope that the team was finally turning around and could be consistently competitive if they managed to not beat themselves by committing penalties. The sad showing against Baltimore surely shattered the fans’ dreams of being anything more than a team headed for a top five draft pick…and the amateurish defense is a prime culprit of the terrible start to the season and the likely 5-11 or worse season record.

Long-term Outlook

The remainder of the 2014 season should be dedicated to talent evaluation. With the Bucs sitting at 1-5 with no hopes of competing for the playoffs, Lovie Smith and Jason Licht should be changing their focus to long-term thinking rather than immediate results. Beyond extending Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David (as soon as possible), not a single player’s roster spot should be safe. Finding 53 players who can contribute to the success of this team (rather than its failures), is crucial to the future of the franchise and Lovie Smith’s tenure as head coach of the Buccaneers.

Roster Evaluation

The current roster has far too many players who seem to have come face-to-face with the Peter Principle. To be clear, the Peter Principle is a concept in which members are promoted until they reach a level at which they are no longer competent. My candidates for the Peter Principle award include:

·      On Defense

o   Leonard Johnson

§  Johnson looks completely lost every game. Often seen as a prototype corner for a Cover 2 scheme, Johnson has been terrible.

o   Dashon Goldson

§  Goldson…wow. Since signing his big deal as a free agent with the Bucs, the ex-49er has been alarmingly disappointing. More of an in-the-box safety, Goldson has been pathetic in pass coverage.

o   Dane Fletcher

§  Although he wasn’t a starter by design, Fletcher had to step in while Mason Foster sat with a shoulder injury. His play has left plenty to be desired, as he’s regularly sucked in by play action, consistently overmatched (by everyone) in pass coverage and hasn’t even played very well in run defense.

While I’ve highlighted these three players specifically, there are plenty more who could be listed alongside them. And still, there is absolutely no reason for this team to be playing as poorly as they have been. This lack of competence is simply inexcusable.

Jeff Tedford : Offensive Guru

Lovie Smith, since his hiring, has made it fairly clear what type of defense will be run employed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this upcoming season: the coach plans on using a Tampa 2 scheme with a four-man front, utilizing speed on defense. On the other hand, the offense has remained a mystery, with one of the only implications being Jeff Tedford’s comments about “speed in space.” With that said, there have been some indications of Tedford implementing a versatile, multi-faceted offense with looks similar to those seen in other teams across the league.

Running Game

So far, the overwhelming assumption has been that the running game will feature a zone-blocking scheme. Although it’s just conjecture, it derives from what seems to be an emphasis placed on athleticism in the team’s offseason approach to the offensive line, particularly the acquisitions of versatile players Anthony Collins and Evan Dietrich-Smith. With Demar Dotson manning the right tackle spot, three of the five positions are locked up by relatively athletic players. Dietrich-Smith, among many, was more well-known for being stomped on by Ndamukong Suh, but proved to be an asset to the Green Bay Packers’ offensive line in his time there. This article shows the impact of his play (and injury) on the Packers in the 2013 season.

This season Dietrich-Smith’s performance will be pivotal to the success of the Buccaneers’ offense, especially considering the state of the guard positions right now. In Green Bay, Dietrich-Smith was bookended by very good guards. In Tampa, that position’s outlook is very different. The leading candidates to be starters are a late-round rookie draft pick in Kadeem Edwards, a second-year player plucked from a practice squad in Patrick Omameh and two underwhelming veterans in Jamon Meredith and Oniel Cousins. So far in camp, the starting duo has been switched fairly often, but Omameh and Edwards are young players who have been said to be good in motion, a necessary attribute for a guard in a zone-blocking scheme. Their development is crucial to the team’s success in 2014 as well as its draft strategy for 2015.

Behind the offensive line, weapons like Doug Martin and Charles Sims will be featured, with the third running back spot still to be determined. The downhill running styles of both players, along with their cutting ability, can flourish in a zone-blocking scheme. If the guards develop well, the Bucs could feature a dangerous running game with a talented stable of running backs.

Passing Game

The passing game is a little more difficult to project. The Buccaneers feature weapons whose skillsets are similar to players on other rosters, and Jeff Tedford is rumored to be an innovative coach who adjusts, implements different schemes and looks, with different personnel groups. Taking a look at the Buccaneers receivers shows a very talented group that Tedford is in charge of molding into a formidable unit.

·      Wide Receivers

The wide receiver unit for the Buccaneers has widely been compared to that of the Chicago Bears because of the size of the starting receivers’ skillsets and size. Like Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson is a No. 1 receiver whose ability to line up all around the formation makes him a nightmare for defenses to deal with. The trend of using primary receivers in the slot has become more prominent recently, creating mismatches for those receivers and the defenders responsible for covering them. Jackson has been part of the trend, being a headache to deal with as an outside receiver, while also seeing great success when he lines up in the slot. On the other side of Jackson, rookie Mike Evans will look to make a big impact on the offense. Not the fastest player at the position, Evans made a name for himself in college by using his 6’5” frame and jumping ability to come down with contested passes, similarly to what Alshon Jeffery consistently did in his second year in the league. Evans has shown deceptive speed as a long-strider and does has great hands, even while catching in traffic. Those two alone may be enough to give defensive coordinators fits, but there other talented players who will compete for time as third and fourth receivers, like 6’4” Louis Murphy, Chris Owusu and last year’s biggest surprise, tight end Tim Wright.

·      Tight End

Speaking of Tim Wright, the second year man joins rookie Austin Seferian- Jenkins and Brandon Myers to make a group of tight ends comparable to that of New England several years ago, post-Aaron Hernandez murder investigation. Seferian-Jenkins’ combination of size and speed, along with his ability to be a difference maker in both the running and passing game, reminds scouts and football enthusiasts of what Rob Gronkowski showed on his way to becoming one of top tight ends in the league before injuries shortened his past two seasons. That skillset will likely earn Seferian-Jenkins a starting role sooner rather than later, but his second-year teammate Wright will still be given looks in two-tight end sets. So far, Tedford has given both Seferian-Jenkins and Wright looks out wide in practices, but it seems that Wright has seen used that way more often. More recently, Wright has been put into motion and lined up as a fullback during some practices, with Seferian-Jenkins getting more reps as a traditional tight end. Although it’s not set in stone and these are just practices, it would seem that Tedford is intending to use two-tight end sets similarly to how Bill Belicheck & Co., used the Gronkowski-Hernandez duo. After all, Tedford did seek advice from Belicheck on how to better use the Cal tight ends. If Tedford is going to use his tight ends to the best of their abilities in the upcoming season, their roles may similar to the New England duo, with Wright serving in the Hernandez role. Chris Rich gave a great analysis of the duo in this article.

Conclusion:

The Tedford-led offense should be exciting to watch. The wide receivers will present matchup problems for any defensive backfield in the league, while the tight ends have the speed and athleticism to cause trouble for linebackers and safeties.  The Buccaneers have a dangerous combination of size and speed at their skill positions, but are depending on journeyman Josh McCown to turn in an outstanding season after playing well for injured Jay Cutler last season. Although many laughed when McCown was handed the starting job, he’s looked good in practice (by many accounts) and has shown leadership that the Buccaneers have missed at the position.

Tight ends Tim Wright and Austin Seferian-Jenkins have the physical skills to be big-time playmakers and will be coached by Jon Embree, who has gotten great production from some notable players at the position.  Making the statement “I came here to dominate. I didn’t come here to just be good,” shows Seferian-Jenkins hunger to be great. With Embree pushing them, there is no reason that he and Wright cannot become a great tandem, especially while the defense has to give great attention to the pair of 6’5” receivers on the outside.

Tedford will likely show many looks, as he has the personnel to do so. A talented stable of running backs, along with tight ends and wide receivers with imposing combinations of size and speed to be threats in the short and long passing game. With a strong running game, the offense could be potent once it gets over its bumps and bruises.

Worst to First for Tampa Bay?

Tampa Bay’s recent transactions have seen the Buccaneers bring in an influx of talent. The free agency period saw the team bring in key players in Michael Johnson, Clinton McDonald and Alterraun Verner, along with expected starter Josh McCown, and the 2014 draft came and went without a defensive player being called while Mike Evans and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins highlighted the annual event.

Even with talented players being added to both sides of the ball, no addition has been more important than that of head coach Lovie Smith. Since Jon Gruden’s departure, the Buccaneers have seen two mediocre coaches “lead” the team to victories in 35 percent of their games— Raheem Morris won 17 of 48 games in three seasons, while Greg Schiano won 11 of 32 games in his two seasons as coach. Now that Smith is in charge, there have been several predictions that the Buccaneers will win the NFC South.

With a new scheme, new players and a new coach, winning the division seems far-fetched to many, but optimism comes with a winning coach—something that the organization has gotten away from in recent years. To many, the hiring of Lovie Smith has brought credibility back to the Buccaneers. Smith’s proven ability to build strong defenses and get the most out of defensive personnel has Buccaneer fans excited for a possible return to prominence. For that to come to fruition, several things need to happen.

The Defense Must Be Outstanding

As was stated before, Lovie Smith has proven that he can develop very good defenses. According to this article, Smith has coached for a top 10 defense in 14 of his 17 years in the NFL. Of those 14 seasons of top 10 defenses, 2 seasons resulted in the No. 1 overall defense, and the defense ranked top 5 overall on 7 occasions. During his tenure with the Bears, Smith had talented defensive rosters, but one could argue that this current Buccaneers’ roster rivals them all in overall talent.

Smith’s time as head coach of the Bears saw fierce pass rushes that, often, were led by contributions from depth rather than one dominant pass rusher. In 8 of Smith’s 9 seasons as head coach of the Bears, the team surpassed 30 sacks in the season. Of those 8 seasons, 4 of them resulted in the team reaching 40 sacks—three of those four teams (2005, 2006 and 2012) were led by double-digit sack players. Not many of those depth charts were as talented along the defensive line as what Smith has inherited and built on this past offseason. If the defensive line can consistently create pressure, opportunities for turnovers will come and turnovers, much like they were in the Buccaneers’ glory days, are emphasized as a major part of the success of the defense. For Tampa to win the NFC South, Smith and Frazier will have to work magic with the defense, molding it into a force so that the team can stand a chance of taking the division.

Jeff Tedford Must Be > Previous Two Offensive Coordinators

Terrible offensive coordinators have plagued the Buccaneers. Since the 2002 season, Tampa Bay has only had an offense that ranked in the top half of the league (in YPG) on three occasions—in 2003, the team finished with the 10^th ranked offense; 2008 saw the team finish as the 14^th- best offense and the 2012 squad finished ranked 9^th in the league. Under Greg Schiano, offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan was responsible for the 9^th-ranked offense of 2012; however, after leading an exciting offense for six weeks (Weeks 6-11 of 2012), Sullivan looked overmatched for the rest of the 2012 season—a trend that seemed to carry over into the 2013 season and, when combined with key injuries, resulted in the league’s worst offense.

Sullivan’s predecessor, Greg Olson, was regularly criticized for his inability to make a competent and consistent offense. Olson’s offenses showed predictability and lack of creativity and were unable to mask players’ weaknesses. Although Oakland Raiders’ players were praising Olson before the 2013 season, he was more well-known for the “Benn’d-Around” than offensive success by the time he left Tampa Bay.

Before Olson came to town, the offense was under the control of head coach John Gruden, who was viewed as an offensive guru because of the success he brought to the Raiders’ organization. While Gruden’s presence was able to push the team to a win over the Raiders in the 2002 Super Bowl, his “offensive genius” only pushed the Buccaneers into the top half of the league twice in his seven years as HC/OC.

Although there’s been much secrecy about the type of offense that will be employed in the upcoming season, Tedford has been seen as an innovative mind not like any that the Buccaneers have seen. Fans are hoping that his long history of developing college quarterbacks can transition into the NFL and that he can create some magic with the current quarterbacks, recreating Josh McCown’s success from the 2013 season and molding Mike Glennon into the “quarterback of the future” that he’s been labeled as.

Schematically, there is much mystery about Tedford’s offense as well. Other than the “speed in space” moniker that has been repeated by Tedford, not much about the offense has been revealed—and even “speed in space” has become unclear to some after the drafting of 6’5” Mike Evans. There has been speculation that the running game will be based on a zone-blocking scheme, but there has not been much information given on the passing game, other than assumptions that the offense will attempt to imitate that of Mark Trestman’s Bears offense, while also featuring some two-TE sets similar to the New England Patriots. However the offense looks, it must be effective. Not many are expecting the Buccaneers to challenge the Saints or Broncos in terms of offensive productivity, but an effective attack that can take pressure off of the defense and rank somewhere in the middle of the pack could be what the team needs to finally return to the playoffs.

Following The Trend Must Work in the Glazers’ Favor This Time  

In the last five years, the Glazers have seemingly followed the popular trend of the NFL. When young coordinator Josh McDaniels was an up-and-coming head coach candidate, the Buccaneers pounced on the opportunity to secure the services of their own “rising star” in Raheem Morris. Similarly to McDaniels’ tenure as head coach with the Denver Broncos, the experiment with Morris as head coach was a failure. Morris’ teams lacked talent at key positions, at times employing starters who were clearly promoted beyond their level of competence (*cough* Sabby Piscitelli). In a sense, the team became a macrocosm of their head coach himself—incompetent and often unprepared—which led to Morris being fired after 10 straight losses and a 17-31 overall record during the 3-year span.

After Morris was fired, the Glazers went in the opposite direction by hiring Greg Schiano, following the trend of NFL teams hiring college coaches. Unfortunately, Schiano’s hiring did not bring the organization the same success that Pete Carroll brought to the Seattle Seahawks. Schiano restored discipline to a team that was lacking it after three years under Morris; however, Schiano’s “tough guy” act wore thin with the players when success didn’t follow. It’s even been said that Schiano and his coordinators ignored the suggestions of their players, including All-Pro defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, instead attempting to fit players into a defensive scheme that wasn’t working. After his firing, even more has come out about the players’ problems with him.

This time around, the Glazers went with a proven winner as their head coach. After being fired by the Bears (after a 10-6 season), Smith took a year off before being hired to lead the Buccaneers. In 9 seasons as head coach of the Bears, Smith amassed an 81-63 record, which includes 5 winning seasons and 3 division championships. It can be assumed that the Glazers, along with Buccaneer fans, are hoping for a turnaround similar to what Andy Reid provided the Kansas City Chiefs, who finished second in the AFC West after going 2-14 in 2012.

Smith has the tools to make the Buccaneers into a contender. Players both old and new have enjoyed playing for Smith, who treats the players with respect and dignity. The current Buccaneers roster is arguably the most talented that Smith has coached in his career. With a proven defensive coordinator in Leslie Frazier, along with Smith’s experience building strong defenses and an innovative mind leading the offense, the Buccaneers have a chance of surprising many this year.

Taking the Next Step: Rashaan Melvin

The last time the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fielded a good pass defense, Raheem Morris was still a key member of the defensive staff. From then until now, the Buccaneers have spent high picks on secondary players and given out some big contracts to veterans, hoping to re-create the 2007 pass defense that led the Bucs to their last playoff appearance.

Although a big part of the problem with repeating the success of the 2007 pass defense has been the pass rush—last year (2013) was the first season since 2007 in which the Buccaneers topped 30 sacks—another problem has been the lack of depth in the secondary. For years, the Buccaneers have pinned their hopes on the potential of players with behavioral issues, like Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson and depended on great performances from veterans like Eric Wright and Darrelle Revis , but the results have been dismal. Just a year ago, the Buccaneers drafted Johnthan Banks, traded for Revis and signed Dashon Goldson to improve a secondary that fell just a handful of yards short from allowing the most yards through the air than any team in NFL history. The two Pro Bowl defensive backs and Jim Thorpe award winning cornerback improved the Buccaneers pass defense to 17^th in the league—still in the bottom half of the league, statistically.

In Mark Dominik’s tenure as general manager, roster depth was a constant weakness. With the new regime taking over, depth has become a strength at certain positions. Transactions to bring in quality veterans, along with the improvement of some lesser known, younger players, has put the Bucs’ fans in an unfamiliar position: a position in which they’re genuinely unsure about certain players being retained and/or released (at certain positions) because of the talent levelx of even third-stringers. The two oft-discussed position battles for Tampa Bay are at left defensive end and running back; however, another battle is happening at cornerback and at the center of it is second-year man Rashaan Melvin, and his continued development could make him eligible for major playing time in 2014.

Age of the Tall Cornerback

The recent success of big wide receivers has forced teams to counter with tall, physical defensive backs. The success of players like Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman has given more reason for teams to seek out size in their cornerbacks. According to this MMQB article, the average NFL defensive back stands 5’11”, with the average receiver going 6’1”. Lovie Smith has previously spoken about how bigger receivers are making tall cornerbacks into more of a necessity. At 6’2” with a 38-inch vertical, Melvin fits the mold.

“Melvin Island”

Back in his days at Northern Illinois University (NIU), Melvin was viewed as a shutdown cornerback. Quarterbacks regularly avoided his side of the field and when they did decide to test him, they were often unsuccessful; hence, “Melvin’s Island” was born. Although he only recorded 1 interception in his senior year, Melvin set a NIU single-season record with 17 pass breakups to go along with 55 tackles. His best statistical year came in 2011, when he recorded 78 tackles, 3 interceptions and 9 pass deflections.

Tampa-2 Corner?

Several scouting reports on Melvin during his final year at Northern Illinois state that he is a physical cornerback who excels in zone coverage and has the ability stay in a receiver’s hip pocket in coverage. These are great attributes for a Tampa-2 corner and, with his size, Melvin will also be able to jam most receivers at the line of scrimmage, which has been practiced regularly in Lovie Smith’s practices this offseason.

In this scouting report on Bleeding Green Nation, Melvin is attributed with stickiness and physicality, with the ability to stay in a receiver’s hip pocket. Although he’s had an up and down performance in minicamps this offseason, the evidence of Melvin’s stickiness is there. On the second day of minicamp, Melvin turned a drop by Vincent Jackson into an interception and also ripped the ball out of speedster Chris Owusu’s hands for another pick. Although the receiver did get his hands on the ball in both instances, the fact that Melvin was in good enough position to make plays is a good sign.

The same scouting report complimented Melvin’s tackling ability with the following statements:

·      Tough, sometimes violent hitter who's not reckless

·      Solid tackler who exhibits proper form and is able to wrestle ball carrier down individually

·      Playmaker mentality as tackler/hitter: sets under control, squares, leans forward and explodes into ball carrier, targeting the football with helmet

Anyone familiar with the concept of Cover 2 knows just how important the defensive backs’ tackling prowess is in the scheme. Cornerbacks in this scheme are very important in the run and pass game.. Missed tackles and bad angles by cornerbacks can lead to big plays for the opposing offenses, so this scouting report’s praise of Melvin’s ability and willingness to tackle is encouraging for his development as a Cover 2 cornerback, especially while learning from Smith, Leslie Frazier and Gill Byrd.

Can He Crack the Roster?

Melvin was a standout in camps as a rookie before injuries derailed his season and he was finally placed on injured reserve in October. This year, Melvin has taken advantage of his time with the first-team offense as injuries sidelined Alterraun Verner and Johnthan Banks. Battling players like Michael Jenkins, Danny Gorrer and Leonard Johnson for a spot on the roster. If the second-year man can stay healthy this offseason and continue his strong defensive play, he could make beat out Johnson or Gorrer for a roster spot. The second-year Husky also needs to showcase the ability to contribute on special teams, which will greatly help his odds of cracking the roster as a fourth or fifth corner, where he can try to climb up the depth chart.  

Here's a video of Melvin's play versus Central Michigan...

...and here is a highlight reel for the former NIU Husky.