"Johnny Football"

             There’s been much fuss made over Johnny Manziel’s visit with the Buccaneers. Although Lovie and Licht are likely going to do their due diligence and invite all top prospects to One Buc Place, Manziel has created buzz due to his style of play and success in the SEC, which many view as “the closest thing to the NFL” in terms of college conferences. Despite that success, the mercurial QB has his share of doubters, with nationally renowned football analysts like Ron Jaworski and Merril Hoge questioning whether Manziel has the mental capacity to be a star in the NFL, or whether his playing style can translate to the pros. Now, it’s my turn and I’ll start with a plea to Lovie and Licht:

Please Say No to Johnny Manziel.

After making that request, I obviously must defend my stance. Although Manziel has had a great NCAA career, I absolutely do not want him on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are in need of a franchise QB if they are not sold on Mike Glennon having the ability to become one but, if that is true, I believe there are much better options than Manziel. And here's why:

Value

First and foremost, if the Buccaneers want Manziel, the team would have to draft him with the No. 7 overall pick. In my opinion, that is a very risky move. For those who want the Bucs to select Manziel with their first-round choice, tagging him as their franchise QB, I have a question: Why, if Manziel is as great as the hype around him, would he last until No. 7, particularly in a draft in which 4 of the 6 teams picking ahead of the Buccaneers are in need of a franchise QB? First-round picks, especially those selected in the top 10, are often expected to be immediate starters in today's NFL or, at the very least, impact players in their rookie seasons. Could Manziel do that?

In my opinion, the answer is "No." Manziel comes from the spread-style, Air Raid offense in which he had a receiver who was able to physically dominate most opposing defensive backs with his size. Also, while Manziel’s athleticism is apparent, he was more easily able to take advantage of it by scrambling and freelancing against defenses that had to put players in position to defend the spread offense. In that offense, Manziel put up outstanding numbers, posting 63 passing touchdowns and 22 interceptions in two seasons as a starter. As a runner, he posted another 30 touchdowns across two seasons, with 1400 yards and 21 scores coming in his first season as a starter. The real question that needs to be answered is whether Manziel can be as effective in a pro-style offense, while battling against NFL defenses. I am a doubter and not convinced that he can make the transition. Someone with the amount of question marks that are surrounding Manziel is not a player that I want my team spending a top 10 pick on.

The Criticism

It’s evident that Manziel has dynamic playmaking ability. He was likely the most exciting player in the NCAA last year, and was regularly featured in the SportsCenter Top 10 highlights—and that was during the college season. In the past few months, he’s still been a regular topic of discussion on ESPN, but, lately, because his ability to compete at a high level in the NFL has come into question. There have been numerous incidents of respected analysts giving brutal criticism of the soon-to-be NFL signal caller, from Ron Jaworski’s statement in which he claimed he wouldn’t take Manziel in the first three rounds, to this analysis by Merril Hoge.

Many draft prospects will have their share of doubters, but I do not remember the last time a highly ranked QB generated opinions that were this mercurial. That’s not a red flag, in my opinion; it’s a billboard laced with neon lights, flashing “BE AWARE” in the night skies like a giant Lite-Brite. Seeing the criticisms from some of the more respected analysts in the league and also factoring in the immaturity that Manziel has shown, along with his prima donna attitude and an unconventional offensive system, makes me very wary of him as a prospect.

The Tape

To most fans, the game tape shows an exciting player at the QB position—one who can make plays with his arm and his feet, creates something out of nothing and has a never say die attitude that comes through in his play and penchant for eluding sacks before heaving the ball downfield to one of his receivers. That’s great; however, I see differently. When I watch Johnny Manziel, I see a great athlete at QB, but one who is undisciplined, who relies on his athleticism and improvisation for far too much success and who, during his collegiate career, has never taken a snap from under center.  The closest Manziel has been to a pro-style offense has been when he’s on the sidelines, watching the opposing team’s offense against the Aggies defense. Along with the sacks in which he gets out of pressure/sacks come the plays in which he feels “phantom pressure” or, with no one close to him, he leaves the pocket unnecessarily.

Here’s an excerpt from the “Weaknesses” section of his NFL.com Draft Profile:

“Feels pocket ghosts and often takes off running at the second flash of coverage. Undisciplined -- plays his own offense and presses to make plays. Cannot see over the pocket easily and almost never steps up into it, creating extra difficulties for OL coaches to coordinate blocking schemes and for offensive linemen to anticipate where the pocket will be. Dances around the pocket too much and creates needless sacks rolling into protection when the pocket is clean. Has not worked from under center, and footwork and set-up will require refinement. Often throws the ball up in the air and relies on big receivers to adjust to it and make plays, highly benefiting from the playmaking ability of Mike Evans.”

My Conclusion

There are risks in every draft. Actually, each draft pick comes with risk; however, Johnny Manziel is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward player. His great athleticism will create some exciting plays in the NFL, where mobile QBs have become all the rave, but he needs serious work in terms of actually quarterbacking. Great stats in the spread offense don’t impress me; nor does completing passes in shoulder pads and a helmet with no defenders in sight other than a group of men with brooms.  With his collegiate history, I don’t believe Manziel could come in and take the helm in week 1 (unless we’re referring to the 2015-2016 season) and there are far too many questions about his character and ability to transition to a pro-style offense and get the mental side of quarterbacking down (i.e. reading defenses, making line adjustments, etc.). That’s not a player that I would select with the No. 7 overall pick. While it could pay dividends if he develops well, it could have Lovie Smith looking for another job in two to three years. Any time I think of the possibility that the Bucs could take Manziel at No.7, I feel something like this.

I just hope I don't feel this way once day one of the draft is done.

2014 NFL Mock Draft: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Round 1, Pick 7: Mike Evans WR

*This is, of course, in the scenario that Sammy Watkins is off the board already.

With Mike Evans starting across from Vincent Jackson, opposing defenses will be faced with the task of stopping two big-bodied, 6’5” receivers. Evans has good speed for his size and uses his body well to come down with contested balls and make tough catches in traffic. Displaying sure hands and physicality, Evans could be a nightmare for defenders to deal with, especially after he works on his route running.

Round 2, Pick 38: Gabe Jackson, G

Jackson is a big man and upon being drafted by the Buccaneers would give the Buccaneers a massive pair of guards—if optimism surrounding Carl Nicks’ health comes to fruition and he gets back to 100 percent—to bookend new center Evan Dietrich-Smith. With Jackson, Dietrich-Smith and Nicks in the inside, with new acquisition Anthony Collins bookending underappreciated Demar Dotson, the Bucs could have the making of a very good offensive line—something that Lovie Smith very rarely had during his tenure as Chicago’s head coach. Guard is currently the weakest position on the offensive side of the ball besides receiver, and Jackson could definitely alleviate the frustration that many fans feel while thinking of the possibility of Oniel Cousins and Jamon Meridith starting on the offensive line.

Round 3, Pick 69: Stanley Jean-Baptiste, DB

SJB is a big defensive back who offers great ball skills and the versatility to play cornerback and safety. Standing at 6’3” Jean-Baptiste can come up to the line and press bigger receivers and is strong enough to disrupt their routes. He has also displayed a nose for the ball and has drawn comparisons to Richard Sherman. With a lack of top-end speed but good ball skills and size, Jean-Baptiste could be an ideal Cover 2 corner, and can also be an effective safety. Lovie Smith loves versatility, and SJB’s ability to effectively play at least two positions could make him a very appealing player to the defensive-minded coach.

Round 4, No Pick

Round 5, Pick 143: Yawin Smallwood, LB

Yawin has expressed confidence in himself when he stated that he believes he is the best linebacker in the 2014 class. Smallwood offers plus size (6’2”, 246 lbs) and  ability, and was a three year starter at the University of Connecticut where he posted 337 tackles, 8.5 sacks,, five forced fumbles and 17 pass deflections (stats obtained from sports-reference.com). He also has the athleticism to drop back in coverage, a big responsibility for Tampa-2 middle linebackers.

Round 6, Pick 185: James Wilder, Jr.

Why not bring in the son of one of the team's best running backs in history?

Round 7, Pick 221: Tahj Boyd

With this draft, I believe the Bucs would address several needs, while also providing depth and size to several positions. If developed properly, this draft could land four potential starters in Evans, Jackson Jean-Baptiste and Smallwood. Obviously, no one is sure about how the draft will play out, but I believe this would be a promising draft that would be building on an already strong offseason. 

Mobile QB for the Bucs?

After reading this article from Bucs Nation, I thought about the approach that Lovie Smith will take with his offensive signal caller.

Head coach Lovie Smith has expressed his respect for teams like this past year’s Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers and Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, particularly mentioning how their teams, lead by strong defenses, put them in great position to win games. While Smith clearly wants to build a dominant defense in Tampa which could compete with those other teams, there is another similarity that he could eventually attempt to adopt as well: that of a mobile quarterback.

With the age of the mobile QB among us—and Russell Wilson’s display of mobility on the biggest stage—one must wonder if Lovie has given thought to bringing in a more mobile QB that Jeff Tedford can develop. The trade of Mike Williams should almost certainly knock Johnny Manziel out of the discussion, as WR now becomes a huge need and grabbing a top-flight receiver should be a priority. After Manziel the most mobile QBs in the NFL draft may be Derek Carr, Logan Thomas and Tahj Boyd. Unfortunately (for Tampa Bay), Carr looks like a pretty good bet to go in the first-round, leaving only mid- to late-round QBs who may fit into the category of “mobile” QBs.

Now, before I go further, let’s clarify something: I believe there is a difference between a mobile QB and a scrambling QB. While scrambling QBs (i.e. Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, etc.) are mobile QBs, not all mobile QBs are scramblers. For example, QBs like Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Drew Brees are considered “mobile” because of their functional mobility in the pocket, combined with the ability to pick up yards on the ground when things are breaking down, but even when they decide to run the ball, no one mistakes them for the Roger Griffins and Michael Vicks of the league.

If Lovie is truly attempting to build the Buccaneers in the mold of the teams mentioned above, he may be in the hunt for a mobile QB of his own. Josh McCown has flashed decent mobility in his career, but is now 34 years old and has likely lost some athletic ability. On the other hand, Mike Glennon is a statue, exhibiting the mobility of a man stuck in quicksand.  There is a possibility that Lovie will attempt to bring a more athletic player in at the position, possibly as a third-stringer who will compete with Glennon in the future.

The Mystery of the Tedford Offense

As the article identified, Lovie Smith has played with QBs who are considered mobile, most recently Jay Cutler; however, the moniker that Jeff Tedford has used often since being named the offensive coordinator is “speed in space.” The interpretation may vary, but Tedford is seen as somewhat of a QB guru (due to QBs that he’s coached being drafted into the NFL) and offensive genius. Many have speculated on the type of players Tedford wants/needs in his offense for it to work efficiently, but no one really knows; however, there is one player who I’d like the Buccaneers to bring in as a project for Tedford to groom. He’s a big, mobile QB with some question marks surrounding his accuracy and decision-making, but has flashed potential as a playmaker who can use both arm and his feet as weapons. Josh Freeman. No, just kidding. The player I’d like to take a chance on, if he’s available, is Terrel Pryor.

Now, before anyone assumes that I’m out of mind for suggesting Pryor as a potential started, please take a look at the skillset he offers at the position, the progress that he’s made in his short career and the poor position that he was placed in last year as he started nine games for the Raiders. Below is a YouTube highlight video to entertain you, and give you more insight on the skillset that I’m intrigued by.

To be clear, there has been no reported connection between the Buccaneers and Pryor, but I believe he’s someone Licht and Lovie should take a chance on. He’s only 24 years old, is one of the best athletes at the position and has shown progress and playmaking ability. He wants to compete and wants out of Oakland. Bringing him in under the premise that he’ll have an opportunity to compete for a starting job in 2015 would not be a bad thing.