"Johnny Football"

             There’s been much fuss made over Johnny Manziel’s visit with the Buccaneers. Although Lovie and Licht are likely going to do their due diligence and invite all top prospects to One Buc Place, Manziel has created buzz due to his style of play and success in the SEC, which many view as “the closest thing to the NFL” in terms of college conferences. Despite that success, the mercurial QB has his share of doubters, with nationally renowned football analysts like Ron Jaworski and Merril Hoge questioning whether Manziel has the mental capacity to be a star in the NFL, or whether his playing style can translate to the pros. Now, it’s my turn and I’ll start with a plea to Lovie and Licht:

Please Say No to Johnny Manziel.

After making that request, I obviously must defend my stance. Although Manziel has had a great NCAA career, I absolutely do not want him on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are in need of a franchise QB if they are not sold on Mike Glennon having the ability to become one but, if that is true, I believe there are much better options than Manziel. And here's why:

Value

First and foremost, if the Buccaneers want Manziel, the team would have to draft him with the No. 7 overall pick. In my opinion, that is a very risky move. For those who want the Bucs to select Manziel with their first-round choice, tagging him as their franchise QB, I have a question: Why, if Manziel is as great as the hype around him, would he last until No. 7, particularly in a draft in which 4 of the 6 teams picking ahead of the Buccaneers are in need of a franchise QB? First-round picks, especially those selected in the top 10, are often expected to be immediate starters in today's NFL or, at the very least, impact players in their rookie seasons. Could Manziel do that?

In my opinion, the answer is "No." Manziel comes from the spread-style, Air Raid offense in which he had a receiver who was able to physically dominate most opposing defensive backs with his size. Also, while Manziel’s athleticism is apparent, he was more easily able to take advantage of it by scrambling and freelancing against defenses that had to put players in position to defend the spread offense. In that offense, Manziel put up outstanding numbers, posting 63 passing touchdowns and 22 interceptions in two seasons as a starter. As a runner, he posted another 30 touchdowns across two seasons, with 1400 yards and 21 scores coming in his first season as a starter. The real question that needs to be answered is whether Manziel can be as effective in a pro-style offense, while battling against NFL defenses. I am a doubter and not convinced that he can make the transition. Someone with the amount of question marks that are surrounding Manziel is not a player that I want my team spending a top 10 pick on.

The Criticism

It’s evident that Manziel has dynamic playmaking ability. He was likely the most exciting player in the NCAA last year, and was regularly featured in the SportsCenter Top 10 highlights—and that was during the college season. In the past few months, he’s still been a regular topic of discussion on ESPN, but, lately, because his ability to compete at a high level in the NFL has come into question. There have been numerous incidents of respected analysts giving brutal criticism of the soon-to-be NFL signal caller, from Ron Jaworski’s statement in which he claimed he wouldn’t take Manziel in the first three rounds, to this analysis by Merril Hoge.

Many draft prospects will have their share of doubters, but I do not remember the last time a highly ranked QB generated opinions that were this mercurial. That’s not a red flag, in my opinion; it’s a billboard laced with neon lights, flashing “BE AWARE” in the night skies like a giant Lite-Brite. Seeing the criticisms from some of the more respected analysts in the league and also factoring in the immaturity that Manziel has shown, along with his prima donna attitude and an unconventional offensive system, makes me very wary of him as a prospect.

The Tape

To most fans, the game tape shows an exciting player at the QB position—one who can make plays with his arm and his feet, creates something out of nothing and has a never say die attitude that comes through in his play and penchant for eluding sacks before heaving the ball downfield to one of his receivers. That’s great; however, I see differently. When I watch Johnny Manziel, I see a great athlete at QB, but one who is undisciplined, who relies on his athleticism and improvisation for far too much success and who, during his collegiate career, has never taken a snap from under center.  The closest Manziel has been to a pro-style offense has been when he’s on the sidelines, watching the opposing team’s offense against the Aggies defense. Along with the sacks in which he gets out of pressure/sacks come the plays in which he feels “phantom pressure” or, with no one close to him, he leaves the pocket unnecessarily.

Here’s an excerpt from the “Weaknesses” section of his NFL.com Draft Profile:

“Feels pocket ghosts and often takes off running at the second flash of coverage. Undisciplined -- plays his own offense and presses to make plays. Cannot see over the pocket easily and almost never steps up into it, creating extra difficulties for OL coaches to coordinate blocking schemes and for offensive linemen to anticipate where the pocket will be. Dances around the pocket too much and creates needless sacks rolling into protection when the pocket is clean. Has not worked from under center, and footwork and set-up will require refinement. Often throws the ball up in the air and relies on big receivers to adjust to it and make plays, highly benefiting from the playmaking ability of Mike Evans.”

My Conclusion

There are risks in every draft. Actually, each draft pick comes with risk; however, Johnny Manziel is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward player. His great athleticism will create some exciting plays in the NFL, where mobile QBs have become all the rave, but he needs serious work in terms of actually quarterbacking. Great stats in the spread offense don’t impress me; nor does completing passes in shoulder pads and a helmet with no defenders in sight other than a group of men with brooms.  With his collegiate history, I don’t believe Manziel could come in and take the helm in week 1 (unless we’re referring to the 2015-2016 season) and there are far too many questions about his character and ability to transition to a pro-style offense and get the mental side of quarterbacking down (i.e. reading defenses, making line adjustments, etc.). That’s not a player that I would select with the No. 7 overall pick. While it could pay dividends if he develops well, it could have Lovie Smith looking for another job in two to three years. Any time I think of the possibility that the Bucs could take Manziel at No.7, I feel something like this.

I just hope I don't feel this way once day one of the draft is done.